# MOX oracle

> Every price print from every source is scored for manipulation before it can move a MOX price. Outliers are downweighted or rejected, and the published price is slew-limited.

Human page: https://trademox.com/oracle · Generated 2026-10-14T23:12:43Z

## Methodology

1. **Sources.** Each market lists its sources (TCGplayer market prices and sales via TCGCSV, Scryfall, PokémonTCG, JustTCG for trading cards; Skinport, Steam Market and CSFloat for CS2 skins). Index markets price every constituent and sum the basket.
2. **Screen.** Every observation (a sale, an aggregate market price or a listing) gets a manipulation score from 0 to 1 by the statistical screen (`stat-v1`: distance from the recent median in MAD units, distance from the oracle and from other sources, same-direction bursts and walk-ups). Score < 0.35 → **accepted** at full weight; 0.35–0.70 → **downweighted** (weight × (1 − score)); > 0.70 → **rejected**. An optional model judge can only raise a score, never lower it.
3. **Aggregate.** The target is a recency-weighted median of accepted and downweighted prints (half-life 24 h for trading cards, 2 h for CS2), with no single sale allowed more than 12% of the total weight. Aggregates count as several sales.
4. **Publish.** The published price moves toward the target at most **6 bps/min** for trading cards and **15 bps/min** for CS2, so one forced print can only nudge it. Status is `live`, `stale` (no accepted print within 48 h for cards, 45 min for CS2: opening orders are paused) or `seed` (no live source has reported yet).

## Market feeds

| Symbol | Name | Oracle price | Status | Updated (UTC) | Mark | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [MTG-LOTUS](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-LOTUS.md) | Black Lotus | 20,000 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 20,064 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-RECALL](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-RECALL.md) | Ancestral Recall | 5,000.0 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 5,056.0 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-TIMEWALK](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-TIMEWALK.md) | Time Walk | 5,720 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 5,722 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-MOXSAP](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-MOXSAP.md) | Mox Sapphire | 5,000 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 4,946 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-CRADLE](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-CRADLE.md) | Gaea's Cradle | 1,635.4 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,635.4 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-USEA](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-USEA.md) | Underground Sea | 1,105.1 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,103.4 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-FOW](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-FOW.md) | Force of Will | 66.89 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 66.89 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-RING](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-RING.md) | The One Ring | 113.59 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 114.82 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-SHEOLDRED](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-SHEOLDRED.md) | Sheoldred, the Apocalypse | 99.40 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 100.25 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [MTG-RAGAVAN](https://trademox.com/trade/MTG-RAGAVAN.md) | Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer | 40.700 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 40.525 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [PKM-ZARD](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-ZARD.md) | Charizard | 954.7 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 947.1 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-MOONBREON](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-MOONBREON.md) | Umbreon VMAX | 2,264.7 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,244.8 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-UMBREONEX](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-UMBREONEX.md) | Umbreon ex | 1,269.7 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,270.2 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-RAYVMAX](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-RAYVMAX.md) | Rayquaza VMAX | 1,268.5 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,268.6 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-ZARDEX](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-ZARDEX.md) | Charizard ex | 314.94 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 316.65 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-MEWEX](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-MEWEX.md) | Mew ex | 863.9 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 868.4 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-GIRATINA](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-GIRATINA.md) | Giratina V | 851.1 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 856.3 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-MGENGAR](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-MGENGAR.md) | Mega Gengar ex | 816.4 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 828.1 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-PIKAEX](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-PIKAEX.md) | Pikachu ex | 740.2 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 745.1 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [PKM-MZARDX](https://trademox.com/trade/PKM-MZARDX.md) | Mega Charizard X ex | 623.2 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 632.2 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [OP-SHANKS](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-SHANKS.md) | Shanks | 3,998.7 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 3,991.0 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-LUFFYG5](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-LUFFYG5.md) | Monkey.D.Luffy (Gear 5) | 160.82 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 160.82 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-ZORO](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-ZORO.md) | Roronoa Zoro | 2,490.0 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,483.6 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-SANJI](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-SANJI.md) | Sanji | 2,284.4 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,266.4 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-HANCOCK](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-HANCOCK.md) | Boa Hancock | 2,155.8 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,158.2 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-NAMI](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-NAMI.md) | Nami | 2,024.2 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,037.2 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-LUFFY13](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-LUFFY13.md) | Monkey.D.Luffy | 2,116.4 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,088.6 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-ACE13](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-ACE13.md) | Portgas.D.Ace | 1,099.7 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,101.0 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-LAW](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-LAW.md) | Trafalgar Law | 1,700.6 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,711.2 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [OP-YAMATO](https://trademox.com/trade/OP-YAMATO.md) | Yamato | 124.45 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 124.46 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |
| [CS-DLORE](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-DLORE.md) | AWP \| Dragon Lore | 6,376 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 6,392 | Skinport, CSFloat |
| [CS-HOWL](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-HOWL.md) | M4A4 \| Howl | 4,123.6 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 4,122.5 | Skinport, CSFloat |
| [CS-FIRESERP](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-FIRESERP.md) | AK-47 \| Fire Serpent | 696.3 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 690.8 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [CS-ASIIMOV](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-ASIIMOV.md) | AWP \| Asiimov | 99.64 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 99.59 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [CS-REDLINE](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-REDLINE.md) | AK-47 \| Redline | 26.890 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 26.890 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [CS-KARAFADE](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-KARAFADE.md) | ★ Karambit \| Fade | 1,681.5 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,676.4 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [CS-BFLYFADE](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-BFLYFADE.md) | ★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade | 2,169.9 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 2,171.6 | Skinport, CSFloat |
| [CS-VICE](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-VICE.md) | ★ Sport Gloves \| Vice | 408.23 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 408.25 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [CS-BLAZE](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-BLAZE.md) | Desert Eagle \| Blaze | 612.9 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 612.9 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [CS-M4PRINT](https://trademox.com/trade/CS-M4PRINT.md) | M4A1-S \| Printstream | 169.12 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 169.42 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [IDX-KNIFE](https://trademox.com/trade/IDX-KNIFE.md) | CS2 Knife Index | 8,110 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 8,085 | Skinport, CSFloat, Steam Market |
| [IDX-MTGSTD](https://trademox.com/trade/IDX-MTGSTD.md) | MTG Standard Meta Index | 494.17 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 494.50 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, Scryfall |
| [IDX-PKMBASE](https://trademox.com/trade/IDX-PKMBASE.md) | Pokémon Base Set Holo Index | 1,939.3 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 1,931.0 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales, PokémonTCG |
| [IDX-OPMANGA](https://trademox.com/trade/IDX-OPMANGA.md) | One Piece Manga Rare Index | 21,393 | live | 2026-10-14T23:12:42Z | 21,654 | TCGCSV, TCGplayer sales |

## Latest screened observations

Last 60: 46 accepted, 4 downweighted, 10 rejected.

| Market | Received (UTC) | Item | Source | Kind | Price | Verdict | Manipulation score | Weight | Model | Reasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDX-MTGSTD | 2026-10-14T23:07:36Z | Voice of Victory (Tarkir: Dragonstorm) | TCGplayer sales | sale | 19.20 | accepted | 0.05 | 0.9957 | stat-v1 | Near Mint · Normal; consistent with recent prints |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 469 | accepted | 0.13 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 25 Skinport listings; 11% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| CS-VICE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) | Skinport | listing | 343.02 | accepted | 0.20 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 30 Skinport listings; 16% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 447 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 11 Skinport listings; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 122 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 7 Skinport listings; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 556 | accepted | 0.10 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 14 Skinport listings; 8% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| CS-M4PRINT | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) | Skinport | listing | 152.64 | accepted | 0.13 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 28 Skinport listings; 9% from oracle; 14% off other sources; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 766 | accepted | 0.12 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 20 Skinport listings; 10% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| CS-KARAFADE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 1,851.5 | downweighted | 0.55 | 0.2262 | stat-v1 | lowest of 5 Skinport listings; 4.8 MAD above recent median; 10% from oracle; 26% off other sources; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 124 | accepted | 0.12 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 24 Skinport listings; 10% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 79 | accepted | 0.11 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 5 Skinport listings; 9% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 168 | accepted | 0.11 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 13 Skinport listings; 9% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| CS-BLAZE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 579.4 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 13 Skinport listings; 5% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 998 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 13 Skinport listings; listing, not a sale |
| CS-BFLYFADE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 2,053.7 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 10 Skinport listings; 5% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | ★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | listing | 247 | accepted | 0.09 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 22 Skinport listings; 6% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| CS-DLORE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) | Skinport | listing | 6,228 | accepted | 0.11 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 2 Skinport listings; thin history (3 reference prints); listing, not a sale |
| CS-ASIIMOV | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) | Skinport | listing | 93.53 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 22 Skinport listings; 6% from oracle; listing, not a sale |
| CS-REDLINE | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) | Skinport | listing | 21.620 | downweighted | 0.43 | 0.2832 | stat-v1 | lowest of 64 Skinport listings; 2.7 MAD below recent median; 20% from oracle; 23% off other sources; listing, not a sale |
| CS-FIRESERP | 2026-10-14T23:04:26Z | AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) | Skinport | listing | 684.0 | accepted | 0.08 | 0.5 | stat-v1 | lowest of 8 Skinport listings; listing, not a sale |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 525 | accepted | 0.05 | 4.9999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (23 sales); 2.6 MAD above recent median |
| CS-VICE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 408.23 | accepted | 0.05 | 4.9999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (34 sales); 12% off other sources |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 461 | accepted | 0.06 | 2.4 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (7 sales); 13% off other sources |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 127 | accepted | 0.05 | 3 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (10 sales); consistent with recent prints |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 607 | accepted | 0.05 | 3.6 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (13 sales); 2.7 MAD above recent median |
| CS-HOWL | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 4,123.6 | accepted | 0.05 | 1.2 | stat-v1 | Skinport 30-day sales median (1 sales); consistent with recent prints |
| CS-M4PRINT | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 172.91 | accepted | 0.05 | 4.9999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (31 sales); 2.7 MAD above recent median |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 849 | accepted | 0.09 | 3 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (10 sales); 3.2 MAD above recent median; 15% off other sources |
| CS-KARAFADE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 1,681.5 | accepted | 0.06 | 2 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (5 sales); 14% off other sources |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 138 | accepted | 0.13 | 4.7999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (19 sales); 4.1 MAD above recent median; 14% off other sources |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 87 | accepted | 0.05 | 4 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (15 sales); 11% off other sources |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 192 | accepted | 0.05 | 2.2 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (6 sales); consistent with recent prints |
| CS-BLAZE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 612.9 | accepted | 0.09 | 4 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (15 sales); 3.6 MAD above recent median |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 1,017 | accepted | 0.05 | 3.2 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (11 sales); consistent with recent prints |
| CS-BFLYFADE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 2,169.9 | accepted | 0.06 | 2.8 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (9 sales); 14% off other sources |
| IDX-KNIFE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | ★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) | Skinport | market | 266 | accepted | 0.05 | 4.3999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (17 sales); 2.7 MAD above recent median |
| CS-DLORE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 6,376 | accepted | 0.07 | 1.4 | stat-v1 | Skinport 30-day sales median (2 sales); 11% off other sources; thin history (3 reference prints) |
| CS-ASIIMOV | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 99.64 | accepted | 0.05 | 4.9999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (40 sales); consistent with recent prints |
| CS-REDLINE | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 26.890 | accepted | 0.05 | 4.9999 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (91 sales); consistent with recent prints |
| CS-FIRESERP | 2026-10-14T23:03:42Z | AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) | Skinport | market | 696.3 | accepted | 0.05 | 3.2 | stat-v1 | Skinport 7-day sales median (11 sales); consistent with recent prints |